Do you still have confidence in the falling stock market? (You might as well com
For every couple, mutual trust or confidence is essential. Without this trust, if there is constant suspicion between them, then the marriage of the two individuals will inevitably break down sooner or later. This is the explanation of "the necessity of having confidence."
Stock investment is also the same. If you lack confidence in the future market, then why are you still trading stocks? A lack of confidence will inevitably lead to cutting losses and ultimately result in investment failure.
Therefore, if we engage in stock investment, we must be full of confidence in the future. This is a single-choice question, and it is a question where we can only choose "having confidence," not "lacking confidence." Because, choosing "having confidence" is the only way to possibly succeed in investment, while choosing "lacking confidence" will inevitably lead to failure.
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Life and investment are the same. When we only have one possible way to survive, do we still have other options? No. At this time, the only correct choice is to believe in the future, believe in hard work, and believe in holding on firmly. Because choosing "believing" is always better than choosing "not believing."
Just as a few days ago, someone asked me, "Can ordinary people definitely make money if they work hard?"
I replied, "Working hard does not necessarily mean you can make money, but not working hard will definitely not make you money."
This decline is not entirely due to performance reasons, but is caused by a variety of factors such as global economic reasons, the reasons for China's A-share system, and market sentiment.
1. There are many problems in the current stock market.
The first issue is that there are too many companies listed, and many companies become junk companies shortly after going public. The listing process, review, and other mechanisms need to be improved. Correspondingly, the delisting mechanism is also far from perfect. In short, it's too easy to get on the bus, but too difficult to get off, making the bus too crowded and heavy, so it can't run fast, let alone take off.From the chart above, it is clear at a glance that the U.S. stock market generally selects the best of the best. After going public, companies must continue to make progress to qualify for staying on the train. Over time, only top-tier companies remain. On the other hand, once a company is listed here, it basically doesn't need to worry about getting off the train. From 1985 to 2008, there were 11,820 IPOs on the U.S. NASDAQ, but the number of delistings reached 12,965 during the same period. From 2001 to 2013, the London Stock Exchange had 965 IPOs, and the number of delisted companies reached as high as 2,004. Mature capital markets basically have the same system. Let's take a look at the big A, which has been established for 30 years. From 1990 to 2020, over 30 years, the total number of A and B shares IPOs on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges was about 4,500, and the total number of delisted A and B shares was 143, of which only 82 were compulsory delistings, and 61 were mergers and acquisitions delistings and voluntary delistings, which is a huge gap!
Secondly, the problem is that our major shareholders can reduce and cash out too easily. Although most people's purpose for running a business is to make money, you can't just focus on cashing out and leaving a mess for the shareholders to bear. After all, shareholders are relatively wealthy groups in society. If their money is also taken away, the economy will definitely be affected.
2. The current economy also has many problems, but these problems are also a necessary stage in the process of economic transformation and historical progress.
At present, whether it is the domestic data that is not up to expectations or the decline in import and export data, I think the essence is the result of contradictions between production relations and productive forces. Looking at the historical process of foreign economies, every developed country first has quantitative economic growth, and then gradually transitions to qualitative economic growth, from extensive to high-tech. In this process, we need time to catch up with developed countries from being the world's cheap factory. In the past 30 years, we have accumulated the necessary capital, which is to seek survival and development. The future is the real pursuit of progress. In this process, time and institutional reform are needed, such as the reform of the education system, the medical system, and the stock market system. Only by further improving production relations after improving productive forces can we ensure the next stage of productive force improvement.
For example, last year, People's Daily published an article saying, "We must unswervingly promote high-quality development, take meeting the people's growing needs for a better life as the starting point and foothold, and continuously transform development achievements into the quality of life." How should we understand this?
Take hospitals as an example. Decades ago, going to the hospital was to save lives. What if you broke your hands or feet? It was solved at home or in the village. Now, with the improvement of living standards, the attention to some rare diseases, difficult and complicated diseases, and so on, has begun to increase, and doctors need to solve them. So the first step is that the strength of good hospitals and doctors is obviously not enough, and the shortage of cutting-edge medical needs needs to be reversed to promote the improvement of medical skills and improvement, including the improvement of drug efficacy, and so on.
Take food as an example, it was to be full at that time, then it was to eat well, and then it is to eat safely! Because we have gradually entered a rich society from poverty, we need to gradually transition from material satisfaction to spiritual satisfaction.
So the problems of the economy and society objectively exist, we need to be patient and give some time, believe that the future will gradually get better, the economy and investment also need a long-term thinking. Speaking of this conclusion.
I am optimistic about the global economic development in the next ten years, and I believe that China's A-share system is continuously improving, and market sentiment will eventually return to rationality. So I think these unfavorable factors for the stock market will be gradually resolved in the future. Therefore, I am very optimistic about the future of A-shares, believe that the people of the world will become richer and richer, and believe that China's economy will get better and better.As the saying goes, investment is a kind of belief. When there is a 50-50 chance of something getting better or worse, I would rather believe it will get better. When there is a 70% chance of something getting better and a 30% chance of it getting worse, I would 100% choose to believe it will get better.
Some people are not like this. They choose to believe in the worse even when the probability of it happening is relatively low. Such people are pessimists. Pessimists are not suitable for the stock market. The stock market is a place where only optimistic and upward-looking people can survive.
I am a very optimistic person. I believe that in the future, some of our country's listed companies will continue to break through international industry technical difficulties, break the blockade of international industry giants, achieve significant technological breakthroughs, and obtain better performance, thereby driving the stock price to rise continuously.
Because I believe in the ability of these excellent companies and their future, I choose to invest in them. No matter in wind or rain, I will support them and invest in them, holding their stocks for ten years as if it were a day. This is my confidence in A-shares.
The cycle of ups and downs is its nature.
No participant enters the market for the purpose of passing on the family line, but for profit and then leaving the market.
This also determines that the market will inevitably fluctuate up and down repeatedly.
Moreover, even if a considerable uptrend occurs, there are still many investors who still lose money in the uptrend.
It's just that in the downtrend, the proportion of such people, the extent of losses is even more tragic, and the feelings are more easily exaggerated and empathized.
As for the unfairness of the stock market, with financing as the core essence, corporate financing, industrial capital cashing out, major shareholders harvesting, the bloated IPO, and even some illegal shareholding reduction.Aren't these the same as they were twenty years ago, ten years ago? How many stock market investors are completely unaware of this?
Whenever the market falls, people look for all kinds of reasons, scapegoats, and both internal and external causes. It's nothing more than numbing the public and catering to the temporary emotional venting, which is meaningless beyond that.
Trading is destined to be a path through thorns and thistles, and traders are destined to be lonely and isolated. Moreover, they inevitably need to regulate their emotions, resolve their emotions, and ultimately have no emotions.
So, if you have confidence in yourself, then the future of the stock market is promising. Generally speaking, opportunities do indeed arise from falls. Whether these opportunities can be turned into profits still requires strict operations and the ability to retain profits.
So, if you don't have confidence in yourself, then the stock market is still a hellish battleground. What's the point of rising? It's nothing more than making a good fire, tempting the flock to enter, and even fattening them up for slaughter.
The reasons for confidence are:
1. The rise of the stock market is needed for the future industrial upgrading of China.
Where is the future development direction of China? I believe it must be the development of high-tech. Energy revolution, communication technology revolution, and financial revolution are all needed. However, the development of high-tech has the characteristics of large investment and high risk. That is to say, you invest a large amount of money in a technology, but there is no guarantee of output. For example, banks cannot take such a big risk to support such a project with low certainty and an uncertain future.
To be honest, the risks of our country's banks are not low either. The frequent explosions in real estate and the high local debts of local governments are two big bombs for banks. I won't say more about this. You just need to know that banks themselves cannot support the funds needed for China's industrial transformation and technological revolution.
If banks do not provide funds, who will? It must be provided by the vast people of China, and the stock market is undoubtedly a good financing channel. How to finance? Tell everyone a good story, a story of a bright future. For example, new energy vehicles are the future development direction of the world, China's new energy vehicles are going to the world, the market prospects are promising, and the future development of enterprises related to the new energy industry chain is immeasurable. Tell a good story, with policy support, and with the rise of the stock market, China's industrial upgrading can raise a wave of funds.The rise in stock prices is in line with the direction of China's industrial upgrading, and the country will support it. For example, in areas such as new energy vehicles, semiconductors, and artificial intelligence.
II. Investment is needed under inflation.
Everyone knows that the central bank has over-issued currency, especially recently, the total amount of money has increased a lot. On the one hand, it is to alleviate the real estate bomb; on the other hand, it is also to dilute the debts of residents and local governments.
With more money, prices will still rise. Now people don't feel it, first, because the currency circulation channel is not smooth, and it has not reached the appropriate place; second, the time cycle is not long enough, and it has not reached the hands of ordinary people. Inflation is always lagging, and the rise in prices is also lagging. When the surging inflation comes, it will be a bit late for everyone to invest. Now I think it is a very good time for investment in the Chinese stock market. Smart people see opportunities now, rare opportunities.
Don't think about buying at the lowest point, it's okay to be able to buy at a relatively low position. Now may not be the lowest point, but it can also be said to be a stage bottom. There may be a sharp fall, but as long as you are optimistic about the future and hold firmly, what does it matter?
Looking back, can you see some opportunities in the large amount of over-issued currency and the food and beverage sector that has fallen like a dog, and some of the previous high-quality big white horses?
Still, one sentence, ordinary people should find their own positioning. Short-term trading is not suitable for most people, and you don't have such professional industry analysis knowledge for value investment. What you can do is to buy some high-quality individual stocks that have been oversold and wait patiently.
But what should be done before the future?
As retail investors, how should we deal with the current situation of the stock market? Here are some coping strategies:1. Maintain Rational Investment: Stay calm and rational during market fluctuations, unaffected by short-term market sentiment. In the long run, the stock market is expected to usher in a new cycle of returns, so focus on the long-term value and development prospects of companies.
2. Pay Attention to Risk Management: Investing in the stock market carries risks. Retail investors should invest according to their own risk tolerance and set reasonable stop-loss points. At the same time, diversify investments moderately, and avoid concentrating all funds in a few stocks to reduce the risk brought by individual stocks.
3. Learning and Research: Strengthen the learning and research of the stock market, understand information such as fundamentals, industry dynamics, and market trends to make wiser investment decisions. You can pay attention to the analysis reports of professional media and research institutions, and communicate and share with other investors.
4. Seek Professional Advice: If you lack experience or confidence in stock market investment, consider seeking professional investment advice or consulting services. Cooperate with professional financial advisors or institutions to obtain more professional investment guidance.