Regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes and cuts, I previously wrote an article whose main content was that the US rate cut will definitely fall in the middle of the A-share bull market, that is, between the end of 2024 and the beginning of 2025, and our bull market just happens to fall between 2022 and 2026. (Viewing the Chinese stock market's bull and bear from the US interest rate schedule, the US is expected to start cutting interest rates in the late middle of 2024)

Firstly, why does the US raise or cut interest rates, and why does it seem to cycle about every 7-8 years?

This is because the US dollar is the world's main currency in circulation, and the Federal Reserve is equivalent to the world's central bank. Under certain conditions, when the US prints money, it is equivalent to printing wealth.

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A country's central bank has the same function - the right to mint money. That is, the paper money printed by the central bank is wealth. If printed in excess, it can dilute the original currency, so the money will become more and more devalued. 30 years ago, you could go to the market with just 1 yuan, but now even 100 yuan is not enough. Why? On the one hand, social wealth has increased, and on the other hand, since social wealth has increased, I need to print the corresponding amount of money. The result is currency devaluation. In fact, the devaluation of physical materials is not that fast, but the devaluation of money is quite fast, especially during periods of rapid economic development.

The US interest rate hike is said to have reached an annual rate of 5%, which is a very frightening figure.

How much is the current domestic deposit interest rate?

Interest rate

You see, the US dollar's annual interest rate of 5%, compared with the domestic rate, can be seen how much higher it is.

Why does the US have such a high rate?

That is to attract global capital to flow to the US, mainly targeting China. As long as a large amount of US dollars flows out, the asset prices of our entire society will collapse, falling from a high position to the bottom. In this situation, the US will cut interest rates, and at this time, a large amount of US dollar assets will flow out of the US again to bottom-fish for the cheapest assets at the bottom, thus completing the harvest of China.In fact, everyone is already aware of such matters.

Japan and the Soviet Union were reaped by the United States in this manner, along with Southeast Asian countries during the 1998 Asian financial crisis, as well as Latin American countries.

The United States has been reaping the world with this tactic for decades.

In reality, the United States understands, and China understands as well.

The Russo-Ukrainian war, the Taiwan Strait crisis, the South China Sea crisis, coupled with the United States' interest rate hikes.

To put it bluntly, there is only one purpose: to disrupt China, Europe, and Russia, and to drive the US dollar into the United States.

However, China's situation is quite special; we have foreign exchange controls.

That is, even if you increase the interest rate to 100%, I lock the US dollar, and without my permission, you are not allowed to outflow, it is useless.

But China can withstand it, while other countries will have to suffer more.

This is also the so-called situation where the big guy and the second guy fight, and the third guy dies.The current situation is that if the United States cannot reap the benefits from China in a timely manner, then such a high interest rate of 5% is a double-edged sword. The United States has to pay 5% interest, which could become the straw that breaks the camel's back for the U.S. The U.S. is currently in a dilemma, and our best policy is to play Tai Chi.

Continue to reform and open up, continue to develop the economy, strengthen our power, and wait for changes.

As for the A-share market, don't even talk about the U.S. interest rate hike, even when there is no interest rate hike, our A-share market has always been at the bottom range.

The U.S. interest rate hike poses the greatest threat to high-value assets. What is at a high position? Real estate.

So, it seems that currently, when the U.S. raises interest rates, our stock market will be flat, and when the U.S. lowers interest rates, our stock market will soar.

When the U.S. raises interest rates, our real estate market will be flat and hold on, slowly declining, and when the U.S. lowers interest rates, the real estate market will rebound.

This is the overall situation.

Therefore, as time goes by, the United States is increasingly unable to bear such a high interest rate, and lowering interest rates is an inevitable choice.

Otherwise, it is a choice of war, otherwise, the United States will inevitably collapse.

From the above analysis:The A-share market currently has all the conditions to rally, just waiting for the right catalyst.

The real estate market is slowly declining, hold on, there will be a rebound if the market falls too much later.